The quarterback line being the highest means that at each pick, a quarterback represents the best value over replacement of any position. This largely agrees with general consensus – early running backs are the most valuable – but this is perhaps a bit more extreme than most people might guess.Ī second takeaway here is that because the red quarterback line is almost always the highest, this means that quarterbacks are almost always drafted later than they should be. First, the early running backs are so unbelievably valuable that no other position should even be a consideration until at least close to the 10th pick. Immediately in standard scoring two things stick out to me. Doing things this way takes advantage of the ‘wisdom of the masses’ effect that we’ve talked about at length before.Įach of the figures below shows value above replacement for both the top 36 (left) and top 100 (right) in standard scoring, half-pppr, full-ppr, and superflex half-ppr scoring. To project how much an individual player will score in the upcoming season, we scraped each of the expert’s projections from FantasyPros and took the median projection from the bunch. We used average draft position tuned to each different format to determine which players were likely to be available at each pick.įirst, though, a comment on how we computed these values. So, we computed exactly this value – the value above replacement at each pick in the top 100 separated out by position. Therefore, you can form a fantasy draft strategy by maximizing the value above replacement you get at each pick. Winning as many games as possible in fantasy is roughly equivalent to accruing as much ‘value above replacement’ as possible in your starting lineup. Notice that in superflex, quarterbacks are about 4.5 points more valuable simply because more of them have to start in a given week.Ģ022 Fantasy Value Above Replacement Charts In superflex leagues, the replacement level for a quarterback was determined by looking at the 24th best points-per-game. The following replacement levels were taken by looking at mean points-per-game of the 30th best WR and RB and the 12th best TE and QB from 2021 data. We determine replacement level by the player at that position who should be the worst player who still starts week-in, week-out. Therefore, in all of the following analysis we compute a player’s value by taking their projected points scored and subtracting off the replacement level points scored. So, the proper way to analyze value in fantasy football is to compare one player against an ‘average’ player at the same position. This is the basis for our draft strategy. Thus, we don’t care purely about how much a player scores, but rather how much more your player scores than your opponent’s player at the same position. The goal is to score more points than your opponent every week. The idea is that even though quarterbacks score the most, the difference from the best QB to the 6th best QB is not large enough to warrant spending an early pick on the QB. However, in regular leagues (where you start one quarterback) the first quarterback is rarely drafted before the late second round or early third round. Quarterbacks score the most points in fantasy football. Point Above Replacement as a Guide for Draft Strategy To skip ahead to our conclusions, click here to read our 2022 fantasy draft strategy. This is a bit different from how we analyzed draft strategy last year, but we believe this is a better methodology. This helps you build a draft strategy by making the best possible picks in the moment to set you up to maximize value at your next pick or two. The idea is based on prioritizing positions where the talent drop-off by your next pick or two is the largest. Then, we use a new metric – differential value – to help you determine which positions are the best to take at each draft pick.For example, comparing the points above replacement for the best RB, WR, TE, and QB who is typically available at the 10th pick can help you decide which players will contribute the most to your total and your chances of winning. First, we look at the points above replacement level at each position for player’s available at a given pick.In this article we present two separate lines of analysis to help you plan for your upcoming fantasy draft.
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